Every year, the Grammys nominate over 500 artists, albums, and songs to be awarded in the coming February. In this article, I’ve decided to focus on what is widely considered the biggest category: Album of the Year. I’ll go over each one of this year’s nominees and rank them from least to most likely based on three major factors—past history, quality, and cultural impact—and try to predict who will be actually awarded a Grammy three months from now.
MUTT, by Leon Thomas: No Chance — Unfortunately, while I like this album, Leon Thomas just does not have the legacy needed to win this. His only prior Grammy win has been via co-producing a song made by a larger artist (SZA’s “Snooze”), and the cultural impact made by this album was not nearly large enough to propel him into winning a major Grammy award.
SWAG, by Justin Bieber: Unlikely — While Justin Bieber is certainly an artist with the starpower to make this happen, this album was, put simply, just too forgettable to win any awards.
Man’s Best Friend, by Sabrina Carpenter: Unlikely — While Sabrina Carpenter certainly proved herself at last year’s Grammys, Man’s Best Friend lacks the massive hit singles that came with her previous release and feels a bit too much like leftovers from Short N’ Sweet to win her an award as big as this.
Let God Sort Em Out, by Clipse: Moderate Chance — While Pharrell Williams’ production on here is superb and the lyrical quality demonstrated by both Pusha T and Malice is incredible, the cultural impact here is just a bit too lackluster for this to go any higher. The album was able to generate some hype pre-release, but the vast majority of the attention given to this album has been via critical acclaim rather than chart success, leaving some uncertainty on the academy’s willingness to award it a victory.
Chromakopia, by Tyler, The Creator: Moderate Chance — This album has all the ingredients to be a Grammy winner: an incredibly popular artist who’s proven himself to be an academy favorite, an album with broad popular appeal and critical acclaim, and songs with plenty of chart success, such as “Like Him” or “Sticky”. However, despite all this, I still feel the academy may favor Kendrick’s experience, DeBí TiRAR Más FOTos’ popularity, or the lyrical quality of Let God Sort Em Out.
MAYHEM, by Lady Gaga: Moderate Chance — This album has been a welcome resurgence in quality by Lady Gaga, who is clearly a legacy artist with the potential to win this, but I’m just not sure this album has had the cultural impact needed to pull through. Yes, at this point, MAYHEM is the 2nd most-streamed album of 2025, but without the hit Die With A Smile that was released last year, it falls all the way down to 18th. Due to the six-month gap between their releases and the heavy contrast between the soft rock ballad and the electro-dance-pop tracks on the rest of the album, I think the academy will somewhat disregard the single’s success in their considerations and focus on the album’s deeper tracks, which haven’t received nearly as much praise from critics and casual listeners alike.
DeBí TiRAR Más FOTos, by Bad Bunny: Strong Chance — While this album hasn’t had as much popularity among English-speaking audiences, its appeal is undeniable—the album is by far the most-streamed album of 2025 with a staggering 7 billion streams. Bad Bunny has also proven his ability to win Grammys in the past, but his wins coming from more genre-specific categories like “Latin-Pop” and “Músicana Urbana” leave some doubts on whether or not he’ll be capable of winning a larger category like album of the year. No completely non-English album has managed to win the award in the past, but Bad Bunny’s recent pledge to perform the Super Bowl halftime show and the current cultural environment lead me to believe there’s a strong chance the academy chooses this year to make history.
GNX, by Kendrick Lamar: Most Likely — In terms of cultural impact, this album likely makes the best case. The album’s proximity to the now-infamous beef between Kendrick and Drake last year meant that it had millions of listeners tuning in upon its release, regardless of which side they were on, and songs like “tv off” and “luther” gave the album some impressive staying power. Kendrick Lamar has also proven himself to be one of the most heavily favored artists, with a total of 66 nominations and 22 wins over his career and a five-Grammy sweep just last year. The only possible critique of this album would be of its quality, especially the album’s lyrical performances, which were admittedly a little underwhelming in comparison to some of Kendrick’s previous projects. Regardless, I think that Kendrick’s weaker lyrical output will still be good enough to surpass many of the other nominees.
